Monday, January 20, 2014

The Celtics and the Marshmallow Test


Okay, for all you Celtics fans calling for the Celtics to tank this season to improve their chances in this year's NBA Draft, I get it.  You're taking the disciplined and scientifically proven approach.  Okay, to be precise, I don't know if there's been any scientific research on sports teams tanking seasons to improve their position in the draft.  But there is lots of academic research on the benefits of deferred gratification.  Consider the famous "marshmallow experiments" where researchers left children alone in a room, empty of distractions, with a treat of their choice (Oreo cookie, marshmallow, or pretzel stick) on a table. Researchers told the children they could immediately eat the marshmallow if they wanted, but if they waited for fifteen minutes without giving in to the temptation, they would be rewarded with a second marshmallow. Researchers observed that some children would "cover their eyes with their hands or turn around so that they can't see the tray, others start kicking the desk, or tug on their pigtails, or stroke the marshmallow as if it were a tiny stuffed animal" in their effort to defer gratification, while some children simply are the marshmallow as soon as the researchers left.  What does it matter when a kid eats his marshmallow and what does that have to do with the Celtics this season?  Here's what.  In follow-up studies, researchers found unexpected correlations between the results of the marshmallow test and the success of the children many years later.  One study found children who were able to defer eating the marshmallow as pre-schoolers had higher SAT scores later in life as compared to their peers who couldn't wait to eat their marshmallow.  So if we apply the lessons learned from the marshmallow experiment, we should all hope the Celtics give up on trying to win this season to improve their chances for success in the future.  Unfortunately, the NBA season is longer than 15 minutes.  And high lottery picks often don't pan out.  So there's no guarantee that if we forgo marshmallows today that there will be a lot more in the near future.



 



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