Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Rondo Still Rondo - In All the Wrong Ways

 

Rajon Rondo's stat line in the Celtics 86-93 loss to the Miami Heat tonight was 0-8 shooting, 1-4 from the free throw line and had 5 assists and 3 turnovers.  Definitely not All Star numbers.  Since coming back from injury, Rondo's come back with all the same weaknesses - lack of a consistent jump shot (though Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland says Rondo was showing progress last season before his injury) and poor free throw shooting - while lacking his strengths - speed, quickness and the ability to get to the hoop. 

The Celtics even managed to keep the game close late in the fourth quarter, which gave Rondo the opportunity to lead the Celtics to a win over the Heat. Instead Rondo delivered the following:

- With the Celtics down by 2 and less than 2 minutes to play, Rondo missed a tough layup.
- With the Celtics down by 4 and 44 seconds to play, Rondo missed a pair of free throws.
- With the Celtics down by 4 and 17 seconds left to play, Rondo took a three-point shot where there were several good 3-point shooters on the floor.

Rondo clearly thinks he's the Celtics' go-to guy.  But the results so far suggest otherwise.  


Monday, January 20, 2014

The Celtics and the Marshmallow Test


Okay, for all you Celtics fans calling for the Celtics to tank this season to improve their chances in this year's NBA Draft, I get it.  You're taking the disciplined and scientifically proven approach.  Okay, to be precise, I don't know if there's been any scientific research on sports teams tanking seasons to improve their position in the draft.  But there is lots of academic research on the benefits of deferred gratification.  Consider the famous "marshmallow experiments" where researchers left children alone in a room, empty of distractions, with a treat of their choice (Oreo cookie, marshmallow, or pretzel stick) on a table. Researchers told the children they could immediately eat the marshmallow if they wanted, but if they waited for fifteen minutes without giving in to the temptation, they would be rewarded with a second marshmallow. Researchers observed that some children would "cover their eyes with their hands or turn around so that they can't see the tray, others start kicking the desk, or tug on their pigtails, or stroke the marshmallow as if it were a tiny stuffed animal" in their effort to defer gratification, while some children simply are the marshmallow as soon as the researchers left.  What does it matter when a kid eats his marshmallow and what does that have to do with the Celtics this season?  Here's what.  In follow-up studies, researchers found unexpected correlations between the results of the marshmallow test and the success of the children many years later.  One study found children who were able to defer eating the marshmallow as pre-schoolers had higher SAT scores later in life as compared to their peers who couldn't wait to eat their marshmallow.  So if we apply the lessons learned from the marshmallow experiment, we should all hope the Celtics give up on trying to win this season to improve their chances for success in the future.  Unfortunately, the NBA season is longer than 15 minutes.  And high lottery picks often don't pan out.  So there's no guarantee that if we forgo marshmallows today that there will be a lot more in the near future.



 



This Just In: Rondo's Back!



Okay. Okay.  This is not breaking news.  Rajon Rondo's already started in two games.  My apologies for not promptly blogging, but they don't pay me enough to blog to a deadline.  I did watch both games and do have my own observations about Rondo's play and effect on the team, which I'll share now.

Offense.  Rondo has had his share of offensive highlights we've come to expect from him, like slashing in for layups set up with his signature behind-the-back-pass ball fake and post-up moves against defending guards.  But Rondo's Achilles' heel continues to be his inability to knock down the mid-range jump shot, which he hasn't been hesitant to take in his first two games back.  Rondo shot 7 of 19 in two games with nearly all of those misses coming off of open mid-range jump shots.

Playmaking.   Rondo continues to be at his best in the open court.  He continues to make good decisions and great plays in transition.  In the Laker game, Rondo made a perfect bounce pass from mid court while on the run to a streaking Kris Humphries for a layup.  This young Celtic team, which has the ability to run up the court on every possession, should play to Rondo's strengths.  Rondo's not running with a team dominated by creaky veterans. 

Rondo is still figuring out how to best run this team in the half-court offense.  It was a lot simpler in the days of the Big Three when Rondo would simply give up the ball to Paul Pierce and let Pierce create his own shot.  This Celtics team doesn't have any players with Pierce's ability.  In his first two games back, Rondo's taken it upon himself to be the scorer at the end of games, which hasn't been a winning formula.

Leadership and Chemistry.  Rather than being aloof and sulky, Rondo has been very vocal with his teammates during team huddles and appears engaged with his teammates.  This was Kevin Garnett's job in the past and doesn't appear to be Rondo's nature to be a vocal leader.  Let's see whether this lasts.    A lot will depend on whether the Celtics win or lose.

It's not completely fair to judge a guy's performance after only two games after coming back from a very serious injury.  Rondo needs time to get up the game speed.  You just can't replicate playing in a real game in a practice scrimmage - and Rondo's been away for months.  And at the moment, Rondo's being limited to 20 minutes of play a game to allow him to get back into game shape without hurting himself. Rondo also has to get used to playing with a very different team than the one his played with for the past five years.  So wait for another report on Rondo several weeks from now to get a better gauge on Rondo's impact on the team.


Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Crawford Trade On Eve of Rondo's Return - Oh Yeah, Almost Forgot. Losing Streak Snapped




Okay, perhaps the headline is a bit misleading.  The Celtics trading Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks to the Golden State Warriors in a three-team trade that involved the Celtics, Golden State and the Miami Heat had nothing to do with the Celtics beating the Toronto Raptors to snap an 8-game losing streak - the two events just happened to occur on the same day.

The event that did trigger Crawford's trade was Rondo being in uniform and participating in warm ups before Wednesday night's game.  Rondo did not enter the game, but word is Rondo will play this Friday when the Celtics host the Los Angeles Lakers.  Only fitting that he should return against the Celtic's historic rivals, though both franchises have significantly declined since the 2008-2010 seasons when the two teams battled each other for the NBA championship.

It will be interesting to see if Coach Brad Stevens can work with Rondo on a team where Rondo is the most dominant player.  At least when Doc Rivers was coaching Rondo, he had three star veterans to keep a moody Rondo in check.  Query whether Stevens will be able to manage Rondo with any seasoned veterans helping keep Rondo in line.

With Rondo back in the line up and recently acquired Jerryd Bayless to serve as backup point guards, Crawford became expendable.  The Celtics also have point guard Phil Pressey.  It was a shame to see Crawford go after he proved this season that he is a capable combo point/shooting guard who was exciting (though often frustrating) to watch with his herby jerky moves and his off-balance sometimes clutch shooting. You have to credit Coach Brad Stevens for helping to make Crawford a desirable NBA player by helping showcase his playmaking ability.

The Celtics traded away Crawford and Brooks for center Joel Anthony and two draft picks, adding to the Celtics already deep war chest of draft picks - now totaling 17 draft picks spread across the next five seasons.  Let's hope GM Danny Ainge will be able to work some magic with this stockpile of draft picks.

On snapping the losing streak, the Celtics followed a familiar pattern of the Celtics getting out to a big lead early in the game, only to watch it dwindle away and disappear in the 4th quarter.  This time, the Celtics has built up an 18-point lead over the Toronto Raptors at the beginning of the 4th quarter only to have it shaved down to 3 points before hanging on to beat the Raptors at the TD Garden.  This time the lead did not disappear, though late in the 4th quarter it sure seemed like the Celtics were trying to give the game away by taking ill-advised shots and missing their free throws.  Jared Sullinger scored 25 points and grabbed 20 rebounds in the win - the first 20-20 game by a Celtics player since Kevin Garnett's debut game as a Celtic in 2007.

Those worried that tonight's win will hurt the Celtics in the Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker sweepstakes need not worry just yet.  With the win, the Celtics remained tied with Philadelphia for the cellar of the Atlantic Division of the NBA Eastern Conference now the New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets have seemingly turned things around over the last month.




Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Regression Toward the Mean



It's been a tough patch for the Celtics - five straight losses and eight losses out of the last 10 games. Add to this that the last two losses were blowouts to the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets. With this many bad days at the office, you can only imagine how tough it must be just to show up for work.  This spate of losing certainly has not inspired me as a fan to write more blog posts about the Celtics.

Most everyone had predicted that the Celtics - after trading away Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and with Rondo still recovering from knee surgery - would be a team in the NBA cellar this season.  So what we're seeing is simply regression towards the mean and that the early season wins were simply a brief spike of overachievement.  The Celtics' lack of All Star talent and experienced big men has finally catch up with them.

There is some faint hope that things may get a little better (unless you're one rooting for the Celtics to tank to improve their chances in the lottery).  The Celtics did trade away Courtney Lee for Jerryd Bayless to give them more depth at the point guard position.  Bayless played in his first game as a Celtic last night in the blowout at Denver.  But it wasn't a game to evaluate whether Bayless impact on the team with him not having any chance to practice with the team nor much time for learning the Celtic playbook.  

On paper, Bayless offers the Celtics a quality point guard run the team until Rondo's return and allows Jordan Crawford to return to his more natural position as a shooting guard.  And upon Rondo's return, Bayless could serve as a quality backup point guard.  Rondo also won't be logging a lot of minutes right away, so Bayless will also allow Rondo to get himself back into game shape.  Of course, this will mean a diminished role for Phil Pressey, which is already happening (Pressey played on 13 minutes in the Denver game to Bayless' 25 minutes).

Of course, Bayless has yet proven himself to be an amazing playmaker.  He's never averaged more than 4 assists in a season nor has he been a regular starter for any team he's played on.

The Bayless trade should help shore up a thin backcourt, but this doesn't do anything to solve the Celtics undersized front line and lack of interior defense.  But these are problems that might not get solved until the off-season through the draft or trades.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

5 Reasons Why I'm Giving Up the Sneaker Game


I'm embarrassed to say that the racks of sneakers pictured above are my sneakers. Sadly, the photo represents only a small fraction of the sneakers I've purchased in recent years.  The rack doesn't include the dozens of pairs I've given away to Goodwill or to friends. And it doesn't include the shoe rack I keep in my office with the shoes that I have acquired as a true collector - shoes that I've never worn and have saved the boxes for to preserve their value should I ever sell or trade them in the future.  The problem is I never trade or sell.  I'm simply an addict - not a dealer.  I fly on my own supply - a supply that is only meant for me.  This is not humble bragging!  I'm truly disgusted by my habit.  It's simply been an embarrassment to have spent thousand of dollars on sneakers - not to mention countless hours shopping for them online and at shoe stores around the world (Size? in London and Kicks Lab in Tokyo).   I'm kicking sneaker obsession beginning this 2014.  This is one New Year's resolution I intend to keep.

Perhaps you're wondering what's the big deal?  Why not just keep buying sneakers?   Well, I'll give you 5 reasons why I'm kicking the sneaker habit. 

Reason # 1 - The Sneaker Industrial Complex.  President Eisenhower once said of the defense industry in his farewell address as president in 1960, "[W]e must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."  The same can said today of the sneaker industrial complex led by Nike, the most successful. influential and powerful sneaker company in the world.  Nike and Adidas together have more money than God.  They don't need anymore money from you.  You shouldn't pay $200 to $300 for a pair of sneakers that only cost Nike 10% of the retail price to make!  As the Macklemore says in the song "Wing$", "Phil Knight tricked us all!"  Don't get swizzled and pimped. Don't get tricked by a business!  $200 sneakers won't make you jump higher. They won't make you play better. Yes, Nike makes some really good sneakers for playing hoops, but you don't need to spend $100 or more for a quality basketball shoes.  The sneaker companies have gotten so sophisticated in their pumping out so many different versions and "color ways" of the same shoe, hyping of release dates and reintroducing of the same shoe as "retro" to create a continually frothy market for sneakers.  

Reason # 2 - Kris Humphries' Posse is Much Cooler than James Harden's Posse.  Okay, this isn't right. Being in Humphries' entourage definitely is not cooler than being in Harden's entourage. Foot Locker ran this clever series of commercials last summer that featured NBA star James Harden sending a member of his entourage to Kris Humphries' entourage for wearing the same pair of sneakers two days in a row.  True, the commercials were funny as hell, but unfortunately it isn't parody.  The message was in fact aspirational - "Wouldn't it be cool if you could wear a different pair sneakers every single day of every year?  Lucky for you, Foot Locker is there to help you make it happen! But don't don't believe the hype.





Reason #3 - Imelda Marcos.  I remember in 1986 during the ouster of Philippines dictator Ferdinand Marcos from power, one of the things that most symbolized the decadence of his reign was his wife's shoe collection.  When the opposition stormed the presidential palace, they found Imelda Marcos' collection of more than 3,000 shoes.  It was obscene then. It's obscene now.  Compare Imelda's shoe collection and [Insert NBA star's name here]'s sneaker collection (in this case it's Stephen Jackson, but it could be just about any NBA star).



Reason #4 - Robbin' the 'Hood.  Okay, my sneaker obsession has not led to my family's financial ruin, We are still able to make our house payments and afford a great lifestyle. We might even be able to afford to send our kids to college.  I have had the disposable income to support my sneaker buying habit.  The problem is the sneaker industry isn't primarily preying on me.  The sneaker industry, like the alcohol and tobacco industry before them, are aggressively targeting their overpriced products at those least able to afford them.  These are the people you see in videos storming malls around the country when the latest edition of retro Air Jordans or Lebrons are released.  My participating in the sneaker game unfortunately supports this redistribution of wealth.



Reason #5 - Minimalism is the New Black.  Minimalism is cool.  Owning more stuff will not make you happy.  The more you have. The more you want.  And the less happy you will be. It's a vicious cycle.  I'm giving up collecting sneakers in particular and stuff in general.  I've adopted a new lifestyle of living with just enough and I've already found that it leads to more contentment - and more time for blogging.



Saturday, December 28, 2013

Celts Hang On to Beat Cavs



Yeah. Yeah. Celts beat the Cleveland Cavaliers at home.  No big deal.  But troubling thing about this win is that the Celts had a 19 point lead at the end of the third quarter and had to hang on for dear life to escape with a 103-100 win.  I guess this is progress as the Celtics have gotten out to big leads in their previous three losses only to be nipped in the end by the other team.  Oh, you glass half empty people will say those other teams weren't as bad as the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Details. Shmeetails.  A win is a win is a win, especially after a three-game losing streak.  In all honesty, I didn't watch this game as it was so early in the day and I had better things to do than to watch a mid-season NBA game at mid-day on a Saturday.  Welcome to the NBA grind.  I can sympathize with those who say that NBA basketball doesn't get interesting until the playoff (and then not only until the fourth quarter!).